Ebrahim Raisi was sworn in as the new President of Iran on August 5 during an inauguration ceremony in the country’s parliament. The 60-year-old cleric is Iran’s eighth president since the 1979 revolution. The inauguration came two days after Raisi received the endorsement of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who previously served as the Iranian President from 1981-1989. Raisi’s victory in June’s presidential election was seen as notably lacking by observers, as a record number of reformist candidates were barred from standing by the Guardian Council.
In his inaugural address, Ebrahim Raisi appealed to conservative values and laid out his foreign policy beliefs during his inaugural address. “I will dedicate myself to the service of the people, the honor of the country, the propagation of religion and morality, and the support of truth and justice,” Raisi said during the ceremony. Raisi also promised to stand up against regional and western adversaries. “Wherever there is oppression and crime in the world, in the heart of Europe, in the US, Africa, Syria, Yemen, Palestine,” Raisi said. “The message of this election was resistance against arrogant powers.” At the same time, Iran’s new President promised to improve relations with other countries in the Middle East. “I extend the hand of friendship and brotherhood to all countries in the region, especially our neighbors,” Raisi said, while adding that there is “no obstacle” to improving strained ties with Saudi Arabia.
Despite the fact that he has a reputation as a hardliner within the context of Iranian politics, Ebrahim Raisi has promised to make progress in the lifting of US sanctions that have restricted Iran’s dealings with the outside world, especially regarding the vital sale of oil. He said during the inauguration that the sanctions against Iran must be abolished and that he would welcome any diplomatic measures that would make that happen. “The sanctions must be lifted,” Raisi said in the address. “We will support any diplomatic plan that supports this goal.” Even though Raisi has attempted to strike a conciliatory tone with the US regarding the Iranian nuclear program and US sanctions against Iran, Raisi is currently subject to his own personal sanctions by the US, who accuse him of having carried out human rights abuses during his time serving as a judge.
Iran has been negotiating with six major world powers over a possible return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear treaty that would see the end of many international sanctions in return for an agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear program. Former US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 and escalated hostilities with Iran during his last three years in office. President Joe Biden has expressed willingness to return to the deal, but talks have so far stalled due to the continued Coronavirus pandemic and continued distrust between both Iran and the US. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price on August 5 called for Iran to return to nuclear negotiations “soon,” while adding that this “process cannot go on indefinitely.” “We hope that Iran seizes the opportunity now to advance diplomatic solutions,” Price said in a press conference.
On domestic policy, Ebrahim Raisi is generally considered to be a conservative populist and has expressed support for policies such as Import Substitution Industrialization as a way to develop the Iranian economy as well as more conservative social policies. As a result of his social policy positions, dissidents fear that Raisi’s ascension signifies the return of harsher repression in comparison to the moderate administration under former President Hassan Rouhani. With Raisi now officially sworn in, Iran’s conservative hardliners control all three branches of government, the executive, the legislative, and the judiciary for the first time since 2013.]
Two of the main contenders to become the next Iranian President, Iranian judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, registered on May 15 to run in next month’s election. The June 18 election to succeed President Hassan Rouhani is seen as a test of the legitimacy of the country’s rulers who are hoping for a high turnout. Term limits bar Rouhani from running again. But voter interest may be hit by rising discontent over an economy that has been impacted by US sanctions reimposed after the Trump Administration exited a nuclear deal between Iran and major powers three years ago.
“I have come as an independent to the stage to make changes in the executive management of the country and to fight poverty, corruption, humiliation and discrimination,” Ebrahim Raisi was quoted as saying in a statement by local media before registering. “I have come to form a strong people’s government for a strong Iran” with the help of “the brave youth,” Raisi said, apparently alluding to recent comments by Khamenei who said he expected a “capable and energetic government” to come to power. Raisi previously lost to current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani by a 16% margin in 2017. Reformists and rights activists say they are alarmed by Raisi’s background as a hardline judge, especially during the 1980s when he was one of four judges who imposed death penalties on thousands of political prisoners. Raisi said his government “will not lose one moment to lift the oppressive sanctions”.
In addition to Ebrahim Raisi and Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, a moderate ally of Rouhani, also registered to run. Jahangiri hopes to gain the support of moderate and reformist supporters within Iran, as well as Iranian expatriates who are eligible to vote in Iranian Presidential elections Registration of candidates ended on May 16, after which entrants will be screened for their political and Islamic qualifications by the 12-member Guardian Council vetting body, which has in the past disqualified many moderates and reformers.
The Iranian conservatives will dominate the country’s new parliament following an election marked by the lowest voter turnout in decades, according to state media. Two days after the polls closed, the interior ministry results published on February 23 by state media said conservative candidates had secured at least 219 seats in the 290-strong parliament, also known as the Majlis. With 11 seats set to be contested in the second round in April, the new parliament will also comprise of at least 20 reformists and 35 independents. Five seats are guaranteed for the country’s religious minorities: Zoroastrians, Jews, Assyrians, Chaldean Christians, and Armenian Christians. In the Iranian capital Tehran, conservatives won all 30 seats, with former mayor and commander of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, topping the list. Before the election, Ghalibaf’s conservative bloc formed a joint list with the ultra-conservative Paydari Front. The Front is led by Morteza Agha Tehrani, a conservative politician who tends to advocate the principles that led to Iran’s 1979 revolution while Ghalibaf has a reputation of being an ambitious technocrat.
According to the Ministry of Interior, voter turnout across the country was ~42%, the lowest since the initial Iranian Parliamentary Elections held in 1980. In previous parliamentary elections, the nationwide turnout exceeded 60%. In Tehran, the turnout stood at just 25%, down from previous votes when it averaged 50%. On February 24, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the country’s enemies had tried to “discourage” people from voting by exaggerating the threat of a new coronavirus but added that participation had been good. The disease has so far claimed the lives of at least eight people in Iran, while more than 40 cases have been confirmed in the country. According to Fouad Izadi, a professor at the faculty of world studies at Tehran University, the low turnout reflected the public’s dissatisfaction with the reformist and moderate bloc, which is associated with President Hassan Rouhani. “For the most part, a good portion of Rouhani’s supporters did not show again because they did not wish to vote for him nor for the opposition,” Izadi said.
In 2016, voters had given the reformist political coalition a parliamentary majority of 126 on the back of a landmark deal negotiated the previous year between Iran and world powers that offered Iran relief from global sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. The bloc, which also promised greater freedoms and international engagement, had also taken all of the 30 seats in Tehran. But a sense of disillusionment appeared to set in among its supporters in 2018 after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and reimposed sanctions against Iran. The financial measures put the Iranian economy into a tailspin, with inflation reaching 33.5% and growth declining by at least 6 percent. “Many people were not very satisfied with their [reformist parliamentarians’] economic policies and their investment in JCPOA rather than in domestic [issues] and development from within,” Zohreh Kharazmi, an assistant professor of American studies at Tehran University said.
Compounding the bloc’s woes, including anger over the poor state of the economy and perceived mismanagement, Iran’s constitutional watchdog in January disqualified thousands of reformists and moderate candidates from running in the vote. Public anger meanwhile soared last month after the military shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people, mostly Iranians, at a time of heightened tensions with the US following its killing of top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, on January 3. “Given that the US imposed more and more sanctions [and] assassinated Iranian General Qassem Soleimani … [a vote in support of the reformists] would have sent a wrong signal that Iranians were bowing down to [US] pressures,” said Zeinab Ghasemi Tari, also an assistant professor of American Studies at Tehran University.
Iran’s Parliament is responsible for passing legislation, approving the annual budget and ratifying international agreements and treaties. All legislation passed by the Majlis is then approved by the Guardian Council and the president. The parliament has a limited say in foreign affairs, although it has played a crucial role in some of the country’s pivotal moments, including in 2015 when it approved the now-unravelling nuclear deal. With a presidential election scheduled for 2021, Iranian political commentator Mohammad Hashemi said the new parliament is “likely to mean tougher years [ahead] for Rouhani“. “[It] comprises of parliamentarians who have mostly taken blatant positions against 2015 nuclear deal, who would further seek to constrain Rouhani and his foreign minister, [Mohammad] Javad Zarif,” he added. For Izadi, the results are a harbinger to policies comparable with those of former conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who took a hardline approach to relations with the West during his 2005-2013 tenure. “The parliament will question the idea of a rapprochement with the West and tend to be more conservative and populist in its outlook on social and economic issues,” Izadi argued.
With the vast majority of votes counted in Israeli elections by the end of April 9, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looked set to clinch a fifth term in office, despite corruption charges, criticism regarding his foreign and domestic policies, and a strong challenger. With about 97 percent of the vote counted, both Netanyahu’s Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White were set to win 35 seats in Israel’s 120-member Parliament. The Central Elections Committee, which oversees the process, said the final tally would not come until April 11. Still, Netanyahu appeared to be the one with a clear path to forming a coalition. His natural allies in the right wing were doing better overall, bringing a possible governing coalition’s predicted total to 65 seats. To create a government, Netanyahu needs to cobble together a 61-seat majority. Speaking to his supporters in the early hours of the morning, Netanyahu said he wanted to thank them “from the bottom of my heart.” “It’s an unbelievable, tremendous victory,” Netanyahu said.
If he remains in power, Netanyahu would be in a much stronger position to fight the charges and draw out the legal process, analysts said. If he forms a new government and survives until July of this year, he will become the country’s longest-serving prime minister, outstripping Israel’s first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion (known for his leadership during the 1948-49 Arab-Israeli War, as well as his involvement in the 1953 Iranian coup). With so much at stake, Netanyahu pulled out all the stops in a campaign that attempted to strike fear into the hearts of right-wing voters that a “leftist” government may prevail, one that could team up with Israeli Arab politicians. Netanyahu pressured small right-wing parties to join with the extreme right-wing Jewish Power party, toxic for even those at the far right of Israeli politics. That appeared to have paved their way to the Knesset, with the new alliance winning five seats, according to the partial results. To woo more conservative votes to his party, he made a last-minute promise to expand Israeli settlements into the West Bank and to ultimately annex much of the territory. The partial results point to the possibility of a more extreme right-wing and religious government than ever before, with ultra-Orthodox parties coming in with around 16 seats.
Overall voter turnout stood at ~68 percent, dipping from ~73 percent in 2015, amid reports of low voter turnout among Israeli Arabs. Making up 20 percent of the population, Israeli Arab voters had been frustrated by a split in the leading Arab factions, while Israel’s controversial Nation State law, bolstered calls for a boycott. Despite the legal challenges he faces and the controversies he has courted, Netanyahu has a die-hard base that will vote for him unquestioningly. Michaela Ben Lulu, a lifetime Likud supporter, called Netanyahu a magician and said she admired his diplomacy, especially his relationship with President Trump. “He loves this nation and the nation loves him,” she said of Netanyahu. “I don’t care about the corruption claims or indictment. He doesn’t need money. He’s straight and trustworthy.”
Throughout his campaign, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealed to right-wing voters by making promises to them about issues long expected to be negotiated with Israel’s Arab neighbors. This strategy helped ensure his grip on power but has reduced the chances of a lasting peace between Israel and Palestine. “It closes all doors for any possible peace settlement and any chance for the Palestinians to have a state of their own,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist from the United Arab Emirates. While that would cause frustration among the Arabs, there was little they could do about it, he said. “The Arabs are at their weakest. The Palestinians are divided like never before. Israel is stronger than ever and Trump backs it, so Israel can do whatever it wants,” Abdulla further added.
For decades, support for the creation of a Palestinian state was a rare issue met with consensus across the Arab world. Israeli leaders faced limits on the kinds of actions they could take for fear of causing pushback from the Arabs or the US and other Western countries. But that dynamic has faded as the peace process stalled for years and as the Palestinians remain divided among themselves, with different factions in charge of the West Bank and Gaza. The Arab Spring uprisings and their violent aftermath left many Arab leaders more focused on staying in power than on standing up for the Palestinians. Additionally, many Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates have increased diplomatic ties Israel, seeing it as a valuable partner in their fight against both increasing Iranian influence, as well as Shi’a Muslims.
Arab investment in the peace process dwindled even further with the election of President Donald Trump, whose administration has built warm relations with Benjamin Netanyahu while isolating the Palestinians. Leaders of many Arab states did not want to jeopardize their ties with the new administration by pushing the Palestinian cause. The shrinking horizon for a Palestinian state “is concerning, but are the Arab regimes concerned?” asked Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon. “The Saudi and Emirati minds are on Iran, and they are not going to undermine their relationship with the United States and with Israel over these issues.” Syria, which has long opposed Israel’s existence, has been weakened by years of civil war that it could muster no more than formulaic condemnations when President Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Additionally, Iraq (who Israel openly supported during the Iran-Iraq War), has been ground down by years of battle to oust the ISIS from a chunk of its territory.
Dealing with the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is more complicated for US allies that made peace with Israel, hoping their agreements would pave the way for a broader deal with the Palestinians. In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi rarely speaks of the Palestinians and has embraced President Trump as a rare American leader who does not criticize his human rights record. Jordan, a close Arab ally of the US, has the most to lose from Israel’s rightward lurch. It shares a long border with Israel, has a large Palestinian population and remains invested in resolving the core issues of the conflict, such as the status of Jerusalem and the fate of the Palestinian refugees. “Now, with the new American approach, none of these positions will be respected,” said Oraib al-Rantawi, the director of the Al Quds Center for Political Studies. “Jordan is not happy to see Netanyahu elected again as prime minister of Israel, and we fear that we are headed toward an open conflict between Israel and Jordan.”
Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election will also play into the hands of socio-political groups within the Middle East such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis and bolsters their (correct) argument that negotiating with Israel is futile and will not lead to a resolution to the current political issues facing the Middle East. “Netanyahu will likely form a new, right-wing Zionist government, and we are before a new stage of unprecedented cooperation between America and Israel represented in Netanyahu and Trump,” Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah said in a speech on April 10.
It remains to be seen whether Benjamin Netanyahu will make good on his election promises. Significant Israeli moves in the West Bank could result in new violence with the Palestinians, and many Arabs would automatically support their Arab brethren. Additionally, cozying up to Israel too much could harm the standing of the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States in the eyes of their people and perhaps lead to their overthrow. “The Palestinian situation has been written off so many times but it remains a big issue for many Arab citizens,” said Michael Young. “We shouldn’t underestimate how this could be a problem for some of these regimes in terms of their legitimacy.”
Muhammadu Buhari was elected to a second term as Nigeria’s President this week.
On February 25, Nigerian election officials declared that Muhammadu Buhari had won a second term as president of Africa’s most populous country, where voters rejected a corruption-stained candidate in favor of a leader who promised to continue a campaign to eliminate graft. Not long after the polls closed, election officials found it apparent that Buhari had defeated the leading candidate, Atiku Abubakar, by a wide margin in an election that was marred by violence. In his post-election statement, President Buhari said he planned to keep working to improve security and the economy, and to fight corruption. He asked supporters “not to gloat or humiliate the opposition. Victory is enough reward for your efforts.”
In response to the results, Atiku Abubakar released a statement calling the results a “sham election” and saying that he would contest the outcome in court. He cited what he called a “statistical impossibility” of the results in some states, where turnout was high despite the fact that life there has been upended by war, as well as anomalies in states that are opposition strongholds. Referring to violence in some states in the south where, he said, soldiers had fired on civilians, Abubakar added, “The militarization of the electoral process is a disservice to our democracy and a throwback to the jackboot era of military dictatorship.” Local civil society groups had also ticked off lists of irregularities during the voting. At one point Abubakar demanded a halt to the counting.
Consequently, I hereby reject the result of the February 23, 2019 sham election and will be challenging it in court.
Nigeria’s Presidential election was in many ways a referendum on honesty, as voters once again embraced a candidate who declared to reduce the rampant levels of corruption that gave Nigeria a mediocre reputation in the past. Additionally, the election served as a referendum on the policies of President Buhari. Despite some questionable policies and poor poll numbers, Buhari was able to secure a second term due to a lower than expected turnout and lack of enthusiasm on the part of Abubakar supporters. Another factor that influence turnout was the fact that election officials decided to delay the vote by a week just hours before polls were to have opened. Numerous registered voters had made long journeys to their home districts to vote because Nigeria has no absentee balloting system. When officials postponed the election, many people gave up and returned home.
Many people are asking if the Democrats will take back the House of Representatives in 2018? I suspect they will make significant gains. Upsets in Pennsylvania and elsewhere have shown a weakened Republican party. The Republicans across the state have been slowly eaten by the Tea Party movement and even the Bannon movement where they have been running candidates and working hard to get rid of “moderates”, meaning centrists Democrat types like Bob Mendez (NJ) or others modern neo-liberal Democrats. What the media has been ignoring is “insurgents” candidates across the country that have been chipping away at the Democratic Machine.
In America, money almost always determines victory in an election, but since the Sanders Movement during the 2016 elections we saw an underfunded candidate nearly take over America’s major political party (the Democratic Party). He created a group OUR Revolution which has affiliates in every state in America. Even Puerto Rico! America politics have just been changed forever and people don’t seem to understand it. Sanders victory would not have been winning the presidency, I don’t think he had the political muscle to get anything significant done, the Democrats hate him, the Republicans would have controlled congress, what could he have really done but slow down the de-funding of government? Another debate for another time. Now he goes around, traveling across the country, talking to the American people while Clinton goes on book tours trying to sell her book. He has built the infrastructure for a new style of American Democracy not seen since the 1960s. He has the largest support among millennial’s, now the largest voting block in America. He has a fairly good history on most issues and being on the right side of history except foreign policy (Sanders is relatively weak on anti-war policy). He should have won the black vote but the churches are so establishment-controlled that he couldn’t break through. The only thing Sanders needs is the backing of religious zealots who are progressive and can destroy the notion that Republicans are the only people who talk to God. Over time I doubt those groups will disappear, you’re looking at a long drawn out civil war on both parties, but worse off for the Democrats. You have a long history of political corruption in some states more than others and you have the truth. Its simple enough to pull up statistics and see that the percentages for big companies donating to Democrats or Republicans can be evenly split.
The single-payer idea is the only rational policy and then you have the Democrats being unable to support it because their being funded by the same people destroying American healthcare. Over time with reforms, you could see insurgent candidates stay in power and continue to build stronger power bases for more “working class heroes” or Bernie Sanders-esque politicians. Where Ralph Nader failed in 2000, Sanders succeed in 2016, with many of the same issues, just different microphones. A graph I did personally at Monmouth University showed the vast majority of young MU college students under 50,000 support Sanders, even many in the upper income brackets, but as people get poorer because of the global economy and poor policies that increase poverty, will we see the rise of a new party growing inside the old? A party that is Democratic, a party that fails for a few years and then starts to rebirth the Democrat party? I think so, its the right time in America, unless there is a war where many troops are used then we could see the process speed up, as wars often do to these things. The Our Revolution groups have nowhere to go but up, the mainstream parties battling each other and the ‘insurgent’ candidates can really only become more unpopular as they fail to get real policy in place and start to bring in people who traditional aren’t in the process or haven’t been accepted as a decision maker. We see similar politics in the UK with labor changing under Jeremy Corbyn. We are seeing infrastructure for the Sanderist movement grow, where communication and cooperation between different groups are growing. They are running decent candidates, many of which will lose this time, but will be able to run again, and again, and again. The 2020 election is where everything will likely start to break down. Sanders is the Henry Wallace of his time, although this time labor is set for a huge victory, its the speed that is hard to figure out.
This Friday, the 12th Iranian Presidential Election is set to be held. Incumbent President Hassan Rouhani is running for a second term and faces opposing candidates including Ebrahim Raisi and Mostafa Mir-Salim Based on the Iranian Consitution, all potential Presidential candidates are required to be vetted by the Guardian Council and must possess necessary political and religious qualification. A total of 1,600 individuals initially put their name to run for president. Out of the 1,600 total candidates, the Guardian Council approved six of them. The three remaining candidates include Rouhani, Raisi, and Mir-Salim. Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former Minister of Industry Mostafa Hashemitaba, and Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri were also approved to run but dropped out of the race over the past week.
Here is an overview of the candidates and a preliminary prediction of the election results:
Hassan Rouhani
Hassan Rouhani is running for a second term as Iranian President and is running on his successes in economic and foreign policy.
Hassan Rouhani is the incumbent President of Iran and is seeking to run for a second four-year term. He is a member of the centrist Moderation and Development Party. Rouhani is running on his record as President of Iran and hopes to continue the progress that has been made. The administration of Rouhani is credited with negotiating and implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, which is a comprehensive agreement with several nations regarding the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, Rouhani has sought to improve diplomatic ties with numerous nations and improve Iran’s overall international perception. Much of the changes in the realm of foreign policy as opposed by Rouhani has been blocked by the conservative political factions within Iran and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who fear that any changes regarding foreign policy will weaken the Iranian government and make Iran dependent on nations that are hostile to its interests.
Hasan Rouhani is credited with improving the Iranian economy after several years of decline as a result of international sanctions and economic mismanagement under the Presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In particular, the policies promoted by Rouhani reduced the inflation rate within Iran from 45% in 2013 to its current 12% and increased Iran’s economic growth rate from -4.1% to 3.7%. Despite some successful reform, the Iranian economy still remains on shaky ground due to the continuation of some international sanctions and because of its overall structure. In the realm of social policy, Rouhani supports continued liberalization within Iranian society and is a strong advocate for increased political freedom and gender equality.
Hassan Rouhani hopes to build upon his administration’s successes in a potential second term. Rouhani has pledged to continue his policy of free market economic reforms and has stated that the involvement of groups such as the Revolutionary Guards within the Iranian economy is a major factor behind its poor performance over the past few years. Rouhani has also questioned the effectiveness of governmental subsidies in improving the economy and instead feels that creating an environment of peace and security is the key to increasing economic confidence.
Hasan Rouhani has stated that the lifting of the remaining sanctions on Iran is a key goal of his second term and supports continued diplomacy will all nations. Rouhani pledges to improve personal freedom and the free access to information in addition to combating long-standing gender inequality. In a swipe at the conservative political factions within Iran, Rouhani has also stated that “We are here to tell pro-violence extremists that your era has come to an end” and that the hardliners “can no longer stand in the way of progress. “
Ebrahim Raisi
Ebrahim Raisi is the conservative candidate in the Iranian Presidential Election.
A favorite of the conservative political factions, Ebrahim Raisi is running as a candidate of the Combatant Clergy Association political party. Raisi is currently the chairman of Astan Quds Razavi, which is a charitable organization based in the city of Mashad that manages the Imam Reza Shrine. Prior to his candidacy for President, Raisi was considered to be a favorite to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader. In addition to his current role, Raisi was previously Tehran city prosecutor from 1985-1994 and the Iranian Attorney General from 2014-2016.
With regards to economic policy, Ebrahim Raisi is running as a populist and as a defender of the poor and working class. Raisi supports Import-Substitution-Industrialization (ISI) as an effective way to both circumvent international sanctions and improve the domestic Iranian economy. Raisi also promised to triple the monthly state benefits as a way to combat political and economic corruption and foster higher levels of economic growth.
Ebrahim Raisi thus far has been relatively vague on the issue of foreign policy. When asked by reporters, Raisi stated that he will seek ties with every country except Israel. It is also widely speculated that Raisi will continue the current Iranian policy towards Syria and expand the already strong relationship that Iran has with Russia. Raisi is also a supporter of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action but has questioned its actual benefits. On social policy, Raisi takes a conservative position, arguing in favor of gender segregation and in support of the Islamization of Iranian universities as a way to combat Western intervention in the country.
Mostafa Mir-Salim
Mostafa Mir-Salim is running in opposition to both Rouhani and Raisi.
A member of the Islamic Coalition political party, Mostafa Mir-Salim is the third Presidential candidate running. Mir-Salim was previously the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance (1994-97) under former President Rafsanjani and was the Iranian national police chief from 1979-80. Thus far, Mir-Salim has been somewhat vague in his policy positions. He supports building up diplomatic with neighboring countries such as Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Qatar and is a strong supporter of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, pledging to enforce it effectively. Mir-Salim also is critical of Rouhani’s handling of the Iranian economy and supports protectionist measures.
Overall, the candidates running in the Iranian Presidential election have a variety of different views covering all parts of the political spectrum. Based on current polling, it seems that the election is a toss-up at this point and that a run-off election will be necessary. In a run-off election, Rouhani will likely be victorious against Raisi with around 55% of the vote. Even though Raisi has the support of the more conservative and older voters, he is a relatively unexciting candidate and has little appeal to younger voters, who make up a majority of the Iranian electorate.
