The race for New Jersey’s next governor has tightened dramatically, with Republican Jack Ciattarelli now trailing Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill by a mere two points, according to a recent poll conducted by National Research Inc. from September 8 to 10, 2025. The survey, which included 600 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 47 to 45 percent, signaling a statistical dead heat as the November 4 election approaches. This development underscores the high stakes of the contest, as New Jersey, alongside Virginia, is one of only two states electing a governor this year, making it a critical barometer for national political trends.
New Jersey has long been a Democratic stronghold, with incumbent Governor Phil Murphy nearing the end of his second term. However, the latest poll reveals a growing sense of unease among voters, with 57 percent of likely voters expressing the belief that the state is on the wrong track. Among these dissatisfied voters, a striking 78 percent attribute their concerns to Murphy’s policies, which they argue have made New Jersey more expensive and less safe. Only 14 percent point to President Donald Trump as a source of their discontent. This pessimism, described by the poll as the most severe to date, could pose a significant challenge for Democrats as they navigate the final weeks of the campaign.
Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, has gained traction among key demographic groups, including unaffiliated voters, working-class and middle-class voters, and those who participated in the 2021 gubernatorial election, which he narrowly lost to Phil Murphy. His appeal to these swing groups has contributed to the tightening race, marking a shift from earlier polls. For instance, a Quantus Insights poll conducted from September 2 to 4 showed Sherrill leading by a wider margin of 47 to 37 percent, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent and 95 percent confidence. Another survey by Tipp/League of American Workers, conducted from August 25 to 28, had Sherrill ahead by seven points, highlighting the rapid momentum Ciattarelli has gained in recent weeks.
The significance of this race extends beyond New Jersey’s borders. As one of only two gubernatorial elections in 2025, it offers a rare glimpse into voter sentiment in an off-year election, which typically sees lower turnout and less enthusiasm compared to midterm or presidential election cycles. A Ciattarelli victory could signal challenges for Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms, particularly if voter dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership persists. Political observers note that while presidential policies and party performance often shape midterm outcomes, New Jersey’s off-cycle election may serve as an outlier, driven more by local concerns than national trends.
Commentators have weighed in on the dynamics of the race. Peter Lumaj, a former Republican US Senate candidate, said that Jack Ciattarelli’s strong polling is unsurprising to political strategists. He pointed to shifting voter registration trends, a narrowing Democratic advantage, and a robust GOP campaign capitalizing on frustration with the current administration. Lumaj also highlighted the influence of Donald Trump and historical voting patterns as factors bolstering Ciattarelli’s chances. Conversely, former New Jersey Republican Governor Christine Todd Whitman, who endorsed Mikie Sherrill, emphasized the Democratic candidate’s independence and readiness to lead. Whitman, who served two terms as governor, expressed concern about Ciattarelli’s alignment with Trump, stating that his reluctance to diverge from the President’s positions does not serve New Jersey’s needs. She praised Sherrill’s experience as a former Navy helicopter pilot and her track record in Congress, describing her as an independent voice accountable only to the people of New Jersey.
With less than 60 days until the election, both candidates face a compressed timeline to make their case to voters. Mikie Sherrill, leveraging her military background and congressional experience, is positioning herself as a steady and independent leader capable of addressing the state’s challenges from day one. Jack Ciattarelli, meanwhile, is capitalizing on voter frustration with rising costs and safety concerns, appealing to a broad coalition of swing voters who may determine the outcome. As the campaign enters its final stretch, the race remains too close to call, promising an intense and closely watched battle for the governor’s mansion.
