Despite pushing policies that have stirred controversy among voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has remained remarkably resilient, according to a recent survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena University from September 22-27, 2025. The poll, based on a random sample of 1,313 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, reveals that 43 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 54 percent disapprove. These figures are nearly identical to those from April 2025, when 42 percent approved and 54 percent disapproved, suggesting that Trump’s support base has not wavered significantly despite ongoing debates over his administration’s actions.
The survey highlights that a plurality of voters believe President Donald Trump has overstepped on several key issues, including immigration crackdowns, media relations, and policies targeting higher education. Yet, this disapproval has not translated into a significant erosion of his overall approval rating. This steadfast support, particularly among Republicans, could signal challenges for Democrats as the 2026 midterm elections approach. The poll indicates a closely divided electorate, with 45 percent of voters saying they would support a Republican candidate in congressional elections today, compared to 47 percent favoring Democrats. This narrow gap underscores the competitive political landscape and the potential influence of Trump’s enduring popularity within his party.
One area where President Donald Trump has gained ground is in perceptions of his economic stewardship. Despite widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy under his administration, more Republicans now credit President Trump for improving economic conditions compared to the Times/Siena poll conducted in April 2025. This shift is significant, as the economy emerged as the top concern for voters in the latest survey, identified as “the most important problem facing the country today.” Trump’s ability to maintain and even strengthen support among Republicans on economic issues could provide a strategic advantage for the Republicans, particularly as economic concerns continue to dominate voter priorities.
However, President Donald Trump faces challenges in other areas of governance. The poll reveals that his management of the federal government, foreign policy, and trade remains deeply unpopular, with voters giving him double-digit negative ratings in these domains. This dissatisfaction reflects broader concerns about the direction of his policies and their impact on the nation’s stability and global standing. As the country braces for a potential government shutdown, made increasingly likely after an unproductive meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders regarding the impending government shutdown, the survey offers insight into public sentiment. Only 27 percent of voters support Democrats shutting down the government to meet their demands, while 65 percent oppose such a move. Even among Democratic voters, congressional Democrats have just 5 percent net support for their funding strategy, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for aggressive tactics.
In the event of a government shutdown, voters are most likely to hold both parties accountable, though Republicans face slightly greater scrutiny. Twenty-six percent of voters said they would likely blame Republicans, compared to 19 percent pointing to Democrats. Independents, a critical voting bloc, were twice as likely to fault Republicans, which could pose challenges for the GOP’s messaging and strategy in the coming months. This blame dynamic underscores the delicate balance both parties must navigate as they approach contentious budget negotiations.
The poll also lays bare the deep polarization gripping the American electorate. For 18 percent of Democrats, President Donald Trump and the Republican Party represent the top issue facing the nation, while 16 percent of Republicans cite Democrats as their primary concern. Among independents, polarization and division ranked as the most pressing issue, reflecting widespread frustration with the state of political discourse. This sentiment is compounded by a pervasive pessimism about the country’s ability to address its challenges, with two-thirds of voters expressing doubt that the US political system can effectively tackle national problems due to entrenched divisions.
As the 2026 midterms loom, President Donald Trump’s resilience in the face of policy controversies and polarized public opinion could serve as a warning for Democrats. His ability to maintain steady approval ratings, particularly among Republicans, and his growing credit for economic improvements suggest that the Republicans may have a strong foundation to build upon. Meanwhile, Democrats face the challenge of unifying their base and appealing to independents in a climate of deep political division. The coming months, particularly with the specter of a government shutdown, will likely test both parties’ ability to navigate these fault lines and shape the narrative ahead of the elections.
