Senator Raphael Warnock has won reelection in Georgia, the Associated Press reports, giving the Democrats a 51-49 majority in the US Senate. Senator Warnock defeated first-time candidate Herschel Walker, whose campaign was beset by allegations that he paid two women to have abortions. Senator Warnock finished ahead of Walker in the election on November 8, but fell short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Former President Barack Obama, who had campaigned for Warnock earlier in the race, returned to Georgia during the runoff to urge voters to come back to the polls.
Though Democrats were already guaranteed to hold onto control of the Senate, the extra seat gives them some breathing room and should make it easier to pass appointments out of Senate committees. The outcome also reinforces a disappointing year for Republicans, who had hoped for a “red wave” that would give them control of both houses of Congress. The Republicans did take control of the House of Representatives by a very narrow margin. Georgia, until recently a solidly red state, is now set to be represented by two Democrats in the Senate for at least four more years. Senator Raphael Warnock first won his seat during a special runoff election in early 2021, defeating the previous incumbent Kelly Loeffler by just under 100,000 votes. He won alongside Democrat Jon Ossoff, who defeated incumbent Republican David Perdue, giving Democrats the 50 votes needed to hold the majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes.
Herschel Walker, a former NFL running back who played college football for the Georgia Bulldogs NCAA team, endorsed former President Donald Trump during both of his presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020 and spoke on Trump’s behalf at the 2020 Republican National Convention. Trump encouraged Walker to run for Senate in 2021, but Walker needed to re-establish residency in Georgia, as he was previously a Texas resident. In August 2021, Walker announced his intention to run for Warnock’s Senate seat. Walker’s campaign has been defined by controversy, often making comments that were later reported as false by media outlets, such as his involvement working with law enforcement. In early October, Walker fired his campaign political director Taylor Crowe over suspicions that Crowe was leaking unfavorable information about Walker to the media.
The Republican Party has won back control of the House of Representatives, giving the creating a toehold to check President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats despite a disappointing midterm election. Republicans are on track for one of the smallest Congressional majorities since the 2000 House of Representatives elections despite pre-election predictions that a red wave was coming. Instead, it took more than a week of vote-counting after Election Day for it to be clear the party had won the majority. And that majority could be difficult to manage for a Republican speaker next year. The decisive call came in a California race, with Congressman Mike Garcia being declared the winner in his reelection bid in the state’s 27th District over Democratic challenger Christy Smith. Redistricting in states like Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and Kentucky, open-seat victories and a surprisingly strong showing in New York State carried the Republicans back to power. But President Joe Biden’s middling approval ratings and a lackluster economy largely failed to propel Republican candidates over battle-tested Democratic members and a wider majority. In the end, only six Democratic incumbents fell.
In a statement on November 16 night, President Joe Biden congratulated House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is in line to be the next speaker, on the Republican victory: “I congratulate Leader McCarthy on Republicans winning the House majority, and am ready to work with House Republicans to deliver results for working families.” For his part, House Speaker-elect McCarthy talked about using the Republicans new power to contain the Biden administration. “Think for one moment. It is official,” he told Fox News’ Sean Hannity. “One party Democrat rule in Washington is finished. We have fired Nancy Pelosi.”
Democrats held out hope of keeping the House for part of the summer and fall, as voters vented fury at the Republican Party over the end of Roe v. Wade. But while the issue of abortion gave Democrats a boost with voters and helped even up what had been developing as a Republican year, it was not enough to halt the Republican parties gains entirely. Republicans needed to net only five seats to take control of the House. The party notched early victories on election night in Florida, where strong performances at the top of the ticket by Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, coupled with a new, aggressively gerrymandered congressional map, helped the Republicans add several seats.
Despite these early wins by the Republicans, the strength shown by the Florida Republicans did not translate over to many of the most competitive districts across the country. A number of endangered Democratic incumbents survived, including Congressmembers like Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Angie Craig of Minnesota and Chris Pappas of New Hampshire, and the party captured open toss-up seats in states including Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Still, Republicans notched a banner victory over DCCC chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in upstate New York, one of several pickups in the state. Republican Marc Molinaro won a seat that included much of the turf he lost in a summer special election. And all of Long Island turned red as Republicans George Santos and Anthony D’Esposito captured open blue-leaning seats.
Additionally, the Republicans managed to flip seats in Virginia, where Jen Kiggans unseated Rep. Elaine Luria; Arizona where Eli Crane defeated Congressman Tom O’Halleran; New Jersey, where Tom Kean Jr. beat Congressman Tom Malinowski; and Iowa where Zach Nunn bested Congresswoman Cindy Axne. Republicans also picked up open seats in Arizona, Michigan, New York, Oregon, Texas and Wisconsin. But most of those districts were seats that Democrats walked away from, thinking they had no shot in keeping them in 2022. Several of them ended up being among the closest contests. In Michigan, Republican John James, a highly touted recruit, beat an underfunded Democrat by less than 1 point. In Arizona, Republican Juan Ciscomani had a much closer than expected contest with Democrat Kirsten Engel. Both contests saw little to no outside spending by Democratic groups.
Democrats fought back in some places, not only limiting their losses but flipping Republican-held districts in Michigan and Washington State, two places where Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump lost in primaries. Democrats were able to beat the eventual far-right nominees in the general elections. Democratic candidates also felled Congressman Steve Chabot (R-OH) and Congresswoman Yvette Herrell (R-NM) in seats that got bluer thanks to redistricting.
The Democratic Party kept control of the Senate in the midterm elections, repelling Republican efforts to retake the chamber and making it harder for them to thwart President Joe Biden’s agenda. The House of Representatives elections, on the other hand, resulted in a very narrow Republican majority. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s shock victory in Nevada gave Democrats the 50 seats they needed to keep the Senate. Her win reflects the surprising strength of Democrats across the US this election year. Seeking reelection in an economically challenged state that has some of the highest gas prices in the nation, Cortez Masto was considered the Senate’s most vulnerable member, adding to the frustration of Republicans who were confident she could be defeated.
“We got a lot done and we’ll do a lot more for the American people,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said in response to the results. “The American people rejected — soundly rejected — the anti-democratic, authoritarian, nasty and divisive direction the MAGA Republicans wanted to take our country.” With the results in Nevada now decided, Georgia is the only state where both parties are still competing for a Senate seat. Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock faces Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a December 6 runoff. Alaska’s Senate race has advanced to ranked-choice voting, though the seat will stay in Republican hands.
Democratic control of the Senate ensures a smoother process for President Joe Biden’s Cabinet appointments and judicial picks, including those for potential Supreme Court openings. The party will also keep control over committees and have the power to conduct investigations or oversight of the Biden administration, and will be able to reject legislation sent over by the House of Representatives. In Phnom Penh, Cambodia, for the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, President Biden said of the election results: “I feel good. I’m looking forward to the next couple of years.” He said winning the 51st seat from the Georgia runoff would be important and allow Democrats to boost their standing on Senate committees. “It’s just simply better,” Biden said. “The bigger the number, the better.”
The fight for Senate control hinged on a handful of deeply contested seats. Both parties spent tens of millions of dollars in Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire, Washington, Connecticut, Colorado, Nevada, and Georgia, the top battlegrounds where Democrats had hoped that Republicans’ decision to nominate untested candidates, many backed by former President Donald Trump, would help them defy national headwinds. Democrats scored a big win in Pennsylvania, where Lt. Governor ohn Fetterman defeated celebrity heart surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz, who was endorsed by Trump, to pick up a seat currently held by a Republican. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly won reelection by about 5 percentage points against Trump-supporting Republican Blake Masters.
Heading into the midterm election, Republicans focused relentlessly on the economy, a top concern for many voters amid stubborn inflation and high gas and food prices. The Republicans also hit Democrats on crime, a message that sometimes overstated the threat but nonetheless tapped into anxiety, particularly among the suburban voters who turned away from the party in 2018 and 2020. And they highlighted illegal border crossings, accusing Biden and other Democrats of failing to protect the country. But Democrats were buoyed by voters angry about the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning the constitutional right to an abortion. They also portrayed Republicans as too extreme and a threat to democracy, following January 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol and Trump’s false claims, repeated by many Republican candidates, that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democratic candidates’ promises to defend abortion rights resonated with voters. He said the election results made him feel good about the country and its commitment to democracy. “We knew that the negativity, the nastiness, the condoning of Donald Trump’s big lie — and saying that the elections were rigged when there’s no proof of that at all — would hurt Republicans, not help them,” Schumer said. “But too many of them, and their candidates, fell into those traps.” Referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, Schumer said voters had rejected “extremist MAGA Republicans.”
Dispelling predictions of a red wave, Democratsseized complete control of the legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota, and held on to governorships in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, maintaining a bulwark against Republican-dominated legislatures in the latter two states. Democrats also won historic victories in Maryland, where voters elected Wes Moore as the state’s first Black governor, and Massachusetts, where they chose Maura Healey as the state’s first openly gay governor. With those two victories, Democrats increased the number of states where they control the governor’s office and both legislative chambers to 18. Republicans had unified control of 23 states heading into yesterday’s election. “Tonight, I want to say something to every little girl and every LGBTQ person out there. I hope tonight shows you that you can be whatever, whoever, you want to be,” Healey said in her victory speech.
In closely watched governor’s races in Florida and Texas, high-profile Republican incumbents cruised to reelection. Both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott have been outspoken opponents of President Joe Biden and have been mentioned as potential presidential candidates. DeSantis called his reelection “a win for the ages” and described Florida as “a refuge of sanity when the world went mad,” referring to his resistance to pandemic-related closures and safety measures. “We made promises to the people of Florida, and we have delivered on those promises,” DeSantis said. In Arizona’s closely fought gubernatorial race, which has attracted national attention, Democrat Katie Hobbs held a slim lead over Republican Kari Lake, who has amplified former President Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election.
Abortion rights supporters also had reason to celebrate. In California, Michigan and Vermont, voters approved measures to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions. In Kentucky, a proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate the right to an abortion appeared headed for defeat. And in Montana, voters were poised to defeat a legislatively proposed referendum that would require medical professionals to provide care to infants born alive after an induced labor, cesarean section or attempted abortion. Physicians in the state and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists opposed the measure. Ballot measures to legalize recreational marijuana use had mixed results. Voters in Maryland and Missouri approved them, but legalization measures in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota failed.
Michigan, a closely divided battleground state in recent elections, was an especially bright spot for Democrats. Despite talk of a tightening race in the weeks before the election, Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer won a second term by a comfortable margin over Republican challenger Tudor Dixon. Democrats gained a majority in the Michigan House for the first time since 2016 and won the Senate for the first time since 1983. And Democrats won in closely watched races for attorney general and secretary of state, defeating Trump-endorsed candidates who have questioned the results of the 2020 election. Governor Whitmer, who has vowed to “fight like hell” for abortion rights, and other Michigan Democrats may have been boosted by the presence of the abortion rights amendment on the ballot. According to exit polls, nearly half of Michigan voters cited abortion as their top issue, compared with about 30% who pointed to inflation.
Voters’ approval of President Joe Bidenremains deep in negative territory and 70 percent of voters say the country is on the wrong track, both results that bode ill for Democrats as Election Day approaches. Fifty-five percent of registered voters said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, and just 42 percent said they approve in the last POLITICO-Morning Consult poll conducted in advance of the midterm election.
Voters often treat midterm elections as a referendum on the president and his party, which suggests that support for Democrats is on the wane, and many polling averages indicate that voters are more inclined to vote for Republicans as a result. The POLITICO-Morning Consult poll is an outlier on this question, showing support for Democratic congressional candidates at 48 percent, five points above support for Republican candidates. The poll continued to show economic issues at top of mind for voters, with 78 percent saying both the economy and inflation will play a “major role” in how they cast their ballots. By contrast, 61 percent of voters said crime would play a major role in their voting decisions this year and 57 percent said the same about abortion access.
Concerns about political violence appear to be increasing among the electorate, with more than two-thirds of voters telling pollsters they believe political violence has increased in the last year. A majority said they believe politicians, social media and the news media are to blame. A full 80 percent of Americans said they were concerned about political violence in the US, a fear that is shared across gender, age, race, and political ideologies. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats reported concerns about political violence, which is defined as an act of violence to achieve a political end, followed by 76 percent of Republicans and independents, respectively. While most voters said they do not believe the risk of political violence is increasing in their own states or local communities, 65 percent responded that they believe it has increased nationally. That majority includes more than 60 percent of Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
The poll was conducted about one week after an assault on the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi by an armed intruder, and most voters in the poll said they believed that the attack was an act of political violence. Sixty-three percent of respondents said they considered the attack either definitely or probably an act of political violence, while 21 percent said it definitely or probably was not a political attack. There was a strong partisan divide between voters who considered the attack to be political in nature and those who do not: Sixty percent of Democrats said it was political while only 23 percent of Republicans agreed. Independents were closer to Republicans on this question, with 36 percent considering it an act of political violence.
Eighty-three percent of voters place the blame for political violence on the perpetrators themselves, but three-quarters of voters found fault with social media platforms, which have also faced scrutiny from members of Congress for their roles in helping people organize violent attacks and promote violent ideas. Sixty-nine percent also blamed the news media, including 76 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Democrats. And 55 percent of voters found television hosts and political commentators responsible for political violence, with blame falling equally on conservative and liberal TV personalities. Former President Donald Trump was also found responsible for increased political violence by 57 percent of voters. Eighty-two percent of people who voted for Biden in 2020 blamed Trump as did 31 percent of his own 2020 voters.
President Joe Biden is staying away from the toughest races on Election Day eve, opting to campaign in safe Democratic territory before what’s expected to be a difficult night for his party. Mired in low approval ratings, President Biden will spend election eve in Columbia, Maryland, stumping for the state’s likely first Black governor, Wes Moore. Throughout the weekend, Biden hit the road for candidates in California, Illinois, and New York, a trio of deep-blue states where some races, particularly the New York governor’s race, narrowed significantly in recent weeks. Biden’s not the only one playing on what should be friendly turf as voting nears. First lady Jill Biden is in Northern Virginia, campaigning with Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) in a congressional district the President won by nearly 20 points in 2020. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump is scheduled to rally alongside Republican J.D. Vance on election eve in Dayton, Ohio, a deep-red state where Democrat Tim Ryan has forced a tighter contest for the open Senate seat.
The late campaign swings underscore how the midterm elections could dramatically reshape the makeup of Congress and statehouses across the country. Democrats are on defense in blue-leaning House seats while Republicans are eyeing supermajority control in statehouses, like in North Carolina and Wisconsin. House Republicans need to net only five House seats to flip the chamber, while an evenly divided, 50-50 Senate means the Republicans need to turn a single seat to take over. Public polling shows margin-of-error races throughout the country, particularly in the Senate, as operatives in both parties anxiously watch how swing voters may break on election day. In recent weeks, Republicans have narrowed or surpassed Democratic candidates in a handful of races, from Georgia to Arizona to New York.
President Joe Biden, along with former President Barack Obama, rallied in Pennsylvania on November 5 for one of the highest-profile races: the contest between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz. The president has centered much of his final campaign schedule on rallying against election deniers, including in that rally, when he told voters: “We need to reaffirm the values that have long defined us.” “We are good people,” Biden continued. “I know this.”
President Joe Biden’s focus on defending democracy comes as Americans vote for the first time since the insurrection on January 6, and as a number of election-denying candidates seem poised to win office on election day. But many voters, according to public and private polling, consistently cite economic concerns, like the soaring cost of living, as the top issue that will determine their vote. That’s prompted an early round of recriminations from inside the Democratic Party about its messaging, as operatives and candidates alike brace for a difficult night. One of Biden’s pollsters, John Anzalone, told The Wall Street Journal, for whom his firm conducts polling, that Republicans appear on track to make gains with not only Latino voters but with African American voters. Democrats have also run heavily on the issue of abortion rights, following the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. And the party is hopeful that a wave of new female voters could help them have a better night than expected.
Early voting totals already show high levels of interest in the 2022 midterms, as Americans cast more ballots ahead of Election Day this year than they did ahead of the 2018 midterms, according to data collected by the United States Elections Project. But those numbers are often not reliable predictors for how an election may go and could merely be a sign that voters are more comfortable with in-person early voting or mail balloting, vote casting that became even more popular during the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the early vote numbers, election officials across the country are warning Americans that results in some states may still be slow, which could cause delays in calling races. Some states, like Pennsylvania, are not allowed, by law, to count mail-in ballots until after Election Day is over, slowing the counting process like it did in 2020. Others, like North Carolina, are processed quickly because the state’s early and absentee ballots are processed as soon as they are received.
Democrats across the party are raising alarms about sinking support among some of their most loyal voters, warning the Biden Administration and congressional leadership that they are falling short on campaign promises and leaving their base unsatisfied and unmotivated ahead of next year’s midterm elections. President Joe Biden has achieved some major victories, signing a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill and moving a nearly $2 trillion social policy and climate change bill through the House. But some in the Democratic Party are warning that many of the voters who put them in control of the federal government last year may see little incentive to return to the polls in the midterms, reigniting a debate over electoral strategy that has been raging within the party since 2016. As the administration focuses on those two bills, a long list of other party priorities, expanding voting rights, enacting criminal justice reform, enshrining abortion rights, raising the federal minimum wage to $15, fixing a broken immigration system, have languished or died in Congress.
Interviews with Democratic lawmakers, activists, and officials in Washington and in key battleground states show a party deeply concerned about retaining its own supporters. Even as strategists and vulnerable incumbents from battleground districts worry about swing voters, others argue that the erosion of crucial segments of the party’s coalition could pose more of a threat in midterm elections that are widely believed to be stacked against it. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have taken a sharp fall among some of his core constituencies, showing double-digit declines among Black, Latino, female and young voters. Those drops have led to increased tension between the White House and progressives at a time of heightened political anxiety after Democrats were caught off-guard by the intensity of the backlash against them in elections earlier this month. President Biden’s plummeting national approval ratings have also raised concerns about whether he would, or should, run for re-election in 2024.
Not all of the blame is being placed squarely on the shoulders of President Joe Biden; a large percentage of frustration is with the Democratic Party itself. “It’s frustrating to see the Democrats spend all of this time fighting against themselves and to give a perception to the country, which the Republicans are seizing on, that the Democrats can’t govern,” said Bishop Reginald T. Jackson, who leads the A.M.E. churches across Georgia. “And some of us are tired of them getting pushed around, because when they get pushed around, African Americans get shoved.” Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, a leading House progressive, warned that the party is at risk of “breaking trust” with vital constituencies, including young people and people of color. “There’s all this focus on ‘Democrats deliver, Democrats deliver,’ but are they delivering on the things that people are asking for the most right now?” she said in an interview. “In communities like mine, the issues that people are loudest and feel most passionately about are the ones that the party is speaking to the least.” Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats acknowledge that a significant part of the challenge facing their party is structural: With slim congressional majorities, the party cannot pass anything unless the entire caucus agrees. That empowers moderate Democrats like Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia to block some of the biggest promises to their supporters, including a broad voting rights bill.
A more aggressive approach may not lead to the eventual passage of an immigration or voting rights law, but it would signal to Democrats that President Joe Biden is fighting for them, said Faiz Shakir, a close adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Shakir and others worry that the focus on the two significant pieces of legislation, infrastructure and the spending bill, will not be enough to energize supporters skeptical of the federal government’s ability to improve their lives. “I’m a supporter of Biden, a supporter of the agenda, and I’m frustrated and upset with him to allow this to go in the direction it has,” said Shakir, who managed Sanders’s presidential run in 2020. “It looks like we have President Manchin instead of President Biden in this debate.” He added: “It’s made the president look weak.”
The divide over how much attention to devote to staunch Democratic constituencies versus moderate swing voters taps into a political debate that’s long roiled the party: Is it more important to energize the base or to persuade swing voters? And can Democrats do both things at once? White House advisers argue that winning swing voters, particularly the suburban independents who play an outsize role in battleground districts, is what will keep Democrats in power, or at least curb the scale of their midterm losses. They see the drop among core groups of Democrats as reflective of a challenging political moment, rising inflation, the continued pandemic, uncertainty about schools, rather than unhappiness with the administration’s priorities. “It’s November of 2021, not September of 2022,” John Anzalone, President Joe Biden’s pollster, said. “If we pass Build Back Better, we have a great message going into the midterms, when the bell rings on Labor Day, about what we’ve done for people.” Even pared back from the $3.5 trillion plan that President Biden originally sought, the legislation that passed the House earlier this month offers proposals transforming child care, elder care, prescription drugs, and financial aid for college, as well as making the largest investment ever to slow climate change. But some of the most popular policies will not be felt by voters until long after the midterm elections, nor will the impact of many of the infrastructure projects.
Already, Democrats face a challenging education effort with voters. According to a survey conducted by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic polling firm, only about a third of white battleground voters think that either infrastructure or the broader spending bill will help them personally. Among white Democratic battleground voters, support for the bills is only 72 percent. Congressman James Clyburn, the high-ranking House Democrat from South Carolina and a close ally of President Joe Biden, said the way the bills were negotiated and reported in the media had voters in his district asking him about money that was cut from initiatives rather than the sweeping benefits. “People stopped me on the streets saying we cut money from our H.B.C.U.s,” Congressman Clyburn said, pointing out that more funding for historically Black colleges and universities will be added in the coming years of the administration. “So while everybody keeps blaming the Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, it’s the Senate rules that are archaic, and stop us from passing these bills.” Clyburn and other lawmakers say they struggle to explain the vacillations of congressional wrangling to their voters, who expected that by electing Democrats to the majority they would be able to pass their agenda. “
Already, the national environment looks difficult for Democrats, who may lose seats in redistricting and face the historical trend of a president’s party losing seats during his first term in office. Tomás Robles, the co-chair of Lucha, a Latino civil rights group based in Phoenix that is widely credited with helping Democrats win the state in 2020, said people were “disillusioned and unmotivated” by what they had seen in the first 10 months of Democratic governance. “When you’re not passing bold progressive policies, you have to be able to show something,” Robles said. “President Biden gets the most blame because he’s the most visible, but it’s the party as a whole that has failed its voters.”
In Georgia, inaction on voting rights has fueled a steepening decline of enthusiasm for President Joe Biden among African American voters. The New Georgia Project, a progressive civil rights group, conducted a study last month of African American voters in Georgia and found that 66 percent approved of the job President Biden was doing, and 51 percent thought that his administration was working to address the concerns of the Black community. In 2020, Biden won more than 90 percent of Black voters in Georgia. Congresswoman Cori Bush, a progressive whose district includes large parts of St. Louis, said the social safety net and climate provisions included in the bill that passed the House could not be pared down any further. And, she added, the White House has to follow through on other provisions if Democrats want to excite African American voters, perhaps the party’s most loyal constituency, ahead of the midterm elections. “Do I believe Black community members will be happy to see these investments? Absolutely. Will they feel like this has changed their lives in some ways? Yes,” Congresswoman Bush said. “But will this be enough to excite? When you’re excited, that means that you feel like something else is coming. You have hope that more is happening. So what’s next?”
